Bitcoin (BTC) has spent nearly a month at or near $30,000, but that’s no coincidence, according to new analysis.
In one of his Quick view Market updates on July 17, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlighted three key factors that are keeping BTC price action in the same place.
Bitcoin speculators in control
Bitcoin fended off any breakout attempts for weeks, hitting occasional one-year highs but dropping ever lower afterward.
For CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler, this has roots – among other things – in speculative trading.
Short-term (STH) holders, he notes, have been selling off their holdings since April, leading to increased selling pressure above $30,000.
“This group is actively selling its Bitcoin reserves, putting significant pressure on the market,” he wrote.
“This indicates that short-term investors are actively liquidating their assets, locking in their profits.”
CryptoQuant defines STHs as entities storing coins for six months or less.
Other recent data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has led analysts to conclude that the STH cost base – recently around $26,400 – is also keeping BTC price action afloat during times of market pressure. more pronounced decline.
Selling Miners Prevents Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin miners are also on the radar this quarter as rising BTC prices trigger a surge in selling.
For Adler, the sale of BTC holdings to cover expenses before the block subsidy halving in 2024 marks another factor influencing price performance today.
“Miners are actively selling their Bitcoin reserves,” he summarized.
“It’s not a random event; we have experienced sales spikes over the past year. This is tied to the next halving event when the reward for mining Bitcoin halves. Miners need cash to invest in new equipment to stay competitive.
As Cointelegraph has reported, mining pool Poolin has been contributing significant exchange inflows recently, sending large tranches of BTC to Binance. This has since become a matter of speculation in its own right, amid rumors on the financial dynamism of the pool.
Lack of real BTC price volatility
Bitcoin’s volatility remains among its lowest in terms of historical context.
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CryptoQuant reveals a sharp slowdown in trading activity since April as those taking profits hope for a more substantial breakout ahead.
Data from TradingView shows the Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) at 14.77 as of July 18 – well below even its 2023 peak.
“All of these factors together form the current picture of the Bitcoin market, where the price appears to be ‘stuck’ in a tight range,” Adler concluded.
“However, as always with cryptocurrencies, changes can happen very quickly, so investors and traders should monitor on-chain metrics closely to stay informed of market changes.”
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.